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av countdown why

AV Countdown Assumptions Explanation

Deadline

Well, that’s easy. Polls close at 10pm on the 6th May 2011.

Start Date

Less easy. The referendum has been in the pipeline since before the election, but so has abolition of student fees, so the date we’re taking is when the referendum was given Royal Assent on the 16th.

But people already agreed with [my side] before then!

Good, then you’re ahead of the game. Well done.

Target

First, I’m taking the electorate count from an independent source at 45,597,461.

Nobody seems to have any clue as to what the turnout will be like, but the General Election got 65%, and it’s likely to be less than that, and an average of national ballots in the last few years comes out to around 50%, so I went for that.

51% of the votes is because it’s more than 50%. SCIENCE!

Isn’t hundreths of a person cruel?

Yes.

Are you assuming linear growth?

No. I’m assuming a linear target. The number required steadily goes up until it stops.

You’re wrong.

Instruct me. You can email me at Nicholas at Aquarionics dot Com.